If someone bought TESLA Model S in 2012, their $77,000 car would be worth approximately $40,000 today. Instead, if he had invested the same $77,000 in TESLA stocks in 2012, he would be a Millionaire today, in fact, $7 Million !! When I saw this post on Instagram a month back, it made me envious of the opportunities that US Stock Investors had. But then on researching, I realized INDIA also had given these opportunities, don't believe me ...read on!
It was 2017, I was in Ladakh on a soul-searching trip after quitting my corporate career with a bunch of people, whom I had just met on the same trip. We were slated to do the picturesque ride from Leh to Nubra Valley by road. I was never into biking and had opted for a comfy trip on an SUV so that I could take some pictures from my window seat. But destiny had some other plans. In our group, one of the bikers fell sick that morning, and hence the tour organizer had an extra bike ( which he had already rented). So he checked with the SUV gang if anyone would want to drive a bike on that amazing road. Not sure what instigated me, I jumped onto this opportunity. Long story short, that's how I drove a Royal Enfield 350 cc for the first time in my life for 7-8 hrs and had the best road trip ever! Not to forget that I drove across the Khardung La, situated at around 18,000 ft. and it's one of the world's highest motorable pass.
No, I ain't going to bore you with my travel adventures in this blog. But the hero of this blog is EICHER MOTORS, the manufacturer of Royal Enfield bikes. I am sure if you are an Indian, you would have at least seen it or heard the mighty Bullet.
Now I am taking you back to 2015 when in an open blog, Prof. Sanjay Bakshi ( one of my favorite Investors), admitted how he missed out on an opportunity. The story: During the peak of the 2008 financial crash, EICHER Motors was available for Rs.200/share in October 2008. The value investor in Prof.Bakshi saw this opportunity and bought his stake. However, by December 2009, the stock rallied to Rs.600/share. That's a 200% return in just 15 months. Fearing that he might lose his returns, he sold his stake and felt happy. Fast forward to 2021, one stock of EICHER Motors is around Rs.26,000/share !! ( Stock split happened in April 2020 in 1:10 Ratio( 10 Stocks for 1 stock held), hence you will see the value now as around Rs.2,600/share ).
Prof. Bakshi in all his humility explained his mistake, primarily because of 2 Biases that made him sell his stake in 2009:
Anchoring Bias: Anchoring is a cognitive Bias where an individual depends too heavily on an initial piece of information offered (considered to be the "anchor") to make subsequent judgments during decision making.
Prof. Bakshi kept looking at Rs.200/share as the Anchor and when he compared it to the gains, he would have felt it has run up too much and felt that it won't go higher further.Loss Aversion: Loss aversion is a cognitive bias that describes why, for individuals, the pain of losing is psychologically twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. The loss felt from money, or any other valuable object can feel worse than gaining that same thing. Haven't we all experienced this?
So after seeing his investment run-up 3X, he couldn't fathom the idea of losing that money, hence he booked profits.
Now let's see why EICHER MOTORS is the Indian TESLA. In 2012 TESLA's stock was around $5.5/share, as of this week it's around $600/share, a stunning 120X. However, if Prof. Bakshi would have held on to his EICHER Motors stock that he bought for Rs.200 in October 2008, going by this week's valuation of Rs.26,000/share, EICHER MOTORS delivers a stunning 130X. Well, that my friend is the joy of holding good company for a really long time!
Imagine a biker, who instead of buying the 350 cc RE bike in 2008, bought the stock. Let's assume the cost was around Rs.1Lakh then for a RE 350cc, so in 2008, he would have got 500 stocks of EICHER MOTORS. Today after 13 years of patience, the worth of those 500 stocks is 1.3 Crore. Assuming the RE 350 CC now costs 2Lakhs, he can afford to buy 65 RE 350 cc !! And that is how "Delayed Gratification" looks like for an Indian investor. All you deserve in life is an opportunity and the Indian stock markets have plenty of them for the long-term investor.
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" ~ Warren Buffett
P.S: I don't personally hold Eicher Motors stock, and neither should this blog be treated as a recommendation to BUY the stock. Kindly do your due diligence before investing in any stocks. #MadAboutStocks
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